ERCOT market intelligence, built for buyers — not traders.
Forward-curve context, peak-period mechanics, and contract-timing signals translated into decisions you can actually act on.
Reading the curve like a buyer. Where today's strip sits versus its 90-day average tells you whether the offer in your inbox is in a favorable window — or a punishing one.
Suppliers price your contract by averaging the curve across your term and adding margin. You don't trade the curve — you read where it sits and which months are pricing the most weather risk.
The dashed segment is the forward strip — what the market is willing to lock in today for delivery in the months ahead.
12-MO STRIP
$54/MWh
24-MO STRIP
$56/MWh
Δ vs 90-DAY AVG
−3.2%
SUMMER PREMIUM
+38%
4CP and what summer afternoons cost you. ERCOT picks four 15-minute peaks across June–September. Your share of those windows sets next year's transmission bill — modeled here for a 1 MW facility.
Step 01
Do nothing
Step 02
Light curtail (90%)
Step 03
Active demand response (70%)
Step 04
On-site gen during 4CP (40%)
Avoiding 4CP isn't trading — it's operations. Curtailment programs, on-site generation, battery dispatch, and load-shifting all reduce your peak share without changing your supplier.
Most businesses leave this on the table simply because no one connected the 4CP rule to next year's bill.
How ERCOT prices tight reserves — and which product absorbs it. Same forward curve, different products. Where the scarcity risk lands depends on the structure you sign.
| Dimension | Fixed | Index (RT) | Block & Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Summer scarcity exposure | Hedged | Full pass-through | Partial — block hedges peak |
| Budget certainty | High | Low | Medium-high |
| Avg cost vs forward strip | +3 to +5% | −2 to +20% | −1 to +3% |
| Best for | Tight-budget tenants | Sophisticated, hedged loads | Mid-load buyers, 1+ MW |
The signals that go into our briefs. Snapshot of the daily watch list. When any of these breach a threshold for your contract window, you hear about it before the lock conversation.
±5%
Curve moves vs 90-day
12 / 24 / 36-month strips
$22
ORDC summer premium
Implied scarcity, $/MWh
13.4%
Reserve margin
Seasonal assessment
3σ
Weather anomalies
Curve-moving forecasts